united is adding a minimum spend requirement to their elite program

browsing flyertalk today, there is a lot of reaction from yesterday's announcement by united airlines about changes to their elite program. starting in 2014, in order to earn status for 2015, they have implemented minimum spend requirements.

what are the changes?

this is similar to delta's changes (well, actually, it's almost the exact same graphic that they've used). for the minimum spend requirements, flights taken with united/united express/copa will all count. flights taken on star alliance and partner airlines also count provided that it was purchased on a united flight ticket (i.e., the ticket number begins with 016). carrier imposed fees also count. people living outside of the 50 american states, and those spending 25k annually on their affiliated credit cards are exempt (the latter does not hold true for the 1k level). i suspect that a lot of people living in seattle will be getting mailing addresses in the vancouver area in the near future.

what is the cost?
this works out to be a minimum of 10c per mile spend in order to achieve the equivalent status (e.g., 50,000 miles / $5,000 spend = 10c/elite qualifying mile). when i've booked flights between canada and the US, i typically hit lower than that. for example, i typically get over 7000 miles going to hawaii round trip for a cost of 450-550$, on my sea-yow run, i received 6000 miles for $500. each time, ~100$ was due to government fees and taxes, which do not count for minimum spend. so in order to reach the minimum spend, i'd probably end up flying over the required flight miles.
 
this new policy restricts bookings to united flight numbers only. for flights on another airline but sold as a united codeshare, those flights are typically more expensive than what the operating carrier would sell it for. for example, yvr-sfo on air canada metal is usually cheaper when purchased on aircanada.com (i.e., does not qualify for minimum spend requirement) than the exact same flight booked as a united code share (i.e., does qualify for minimum spend requirements). so in the end, instead of flying 50k on a whole bunch of airlines, it forces you to concentrate on certain airlines in particular.

who's next?
over the next few years, i plan to transition from asiana airlines to a north american program as i suspect i will be traveling more. and while these changes don't impact me yet, there are no guarantees that canada will continue to remain exempt. i also wonder who will be the next to catch the minimum-spend virus. flyertalkers speculate american will be next, although i doubt that would happen anytime soon given the merger that's underway. my main concern is with air canada.

air canada has been eager to play catch up by raising its altitude elite qualifying program requirements. it used to take 35k to earn the equivalent of star gold status, but now they require 50k. their reasoning was so that "it would be more in line with other airlines." never mind the fact that:

• domestic tango flights earn 0% elite qualifying miles (compared to the north american programs which give 100% on all fares)
• international tango, which is similarly priced to the american counterparts, earn 50% elite qualifying miles
• there is this ridiculous thing called air canada rouge which offers 400-800 status miles on flex fares when the actual distance is somewhere between 5-6x that much, depending on where you start

if they were to implement the minimum spend requirement, i actually would be in a bind because i would be forced to choose between air canada and united as my main airline instead of just frequent flyer program. if i choose air canada, would i buy flex fares ($130+ round trip) on all of my domestic legs and try hard to get 50k despite 50% qualifying miles on international flights (limiting factor may be qualifying miles and qualifying dollars)? if i choose united, would i stick only with united on my international flights (poorer hard product compared air canada), and try to do as many of my domestic flights as possible via seattle instead of vancouver (limiting factor would be qualifying dollars)?

we will see ...